2025 Highlights and 2026 Forecast
by Isaac Cohen | January 28, 2026
Each year brings new shifts in how cellular connectivity evolves, and in 2025 several long-anticipated changes began to take clearer shape. Progress around the SGP.32 ecosystem, advances in 5G Standalone, the growing operational use of AI, and the integration of non-terrestrial networks all marked a year of significant development in the industry. This review looks at the key events and trends from the past year that are shaping the next phase of mobile connectivity.
The Road to SGP.32 at Scale
While the standard itself is finished, there’s a lot of work happening around the SGP.32 ecosystem. With the core specification finalized and all testing and verification finally done, vendors can officially get through the certification process for all key elements of the architecture: the eUICC, the DP+, and the IPA. There is no standalone GSMA Compliance listing required for the eIM, but most of the eIM vendors still go through a certification process.
Starting from April 2025, vendors began announcing certifications that demonstrate functionality and interoperability, some claiming full-stack solution compliance, some only for an eUICC component. Some also announced compliance with eSA (security assurance) and SAS-SM (site security), which are security schemes that are adjacent to GSMA eSIM Compliance. With early commercial use just starting, broader rollout is underway: for example, in September, Transforma Insights mentioned a provider working with a 1m+ connections customer that wanted to make use of SGP.32.
Over the past year, analyst forecasts for SGP.32 have consistently pointed to very strong long-term growth, but with timelines pushed out as implementation has proven slower than expected. ABI Research initially projected profile downloads to rise from 2.9 million in 2025 to over 194 million by 2029, later revising near-term expectations and shifting the main deployment surge to H2 2026–2027. In April, Kaleido Intelligence forecast around 50 million managed SGP.32 eSIMs by 2027 and specifically noted that the nascent state of the SGP.32 ecosystem meant a long road ahead in terms of testing, interoperability, and solutions to reduce complexity, and that the interaction between different OSs, devices and eIMs has yet to be tested on a broad scale. In September, another new Kaleido Intelligence report was quoted in the media, stating that SGP.32 solutions are being tested now, with a view to a commercial acceleration through 2026, and a tipping point sometime in 2027-2028.
With all promises of future growth, while the ecosystem around SGP.32 is still forming, enterprises that need tried and tested connectivity solutions for their IoT deployments may prefer to wait until there are enough certified products and successful implementations. However, there is an option of using proprietary pre-standard solutions compatible with SGP.32 requirements. There are solutions that have already been thoroughly tested and commercially deployed, such as WebbingCTRL, which successfully ensures over 1 million connections across various industries. These solutions can help enterprises reap all the benefits of the new standard and prepare for seamless migration to SGP.32 when it becomes ubiquitous. The solution architecture will be the main differentiator here, as it will be critical for compatibility and seamless transition to the new standard.
Experts also note that although SGP.32 is a very powerful tool, there is more to providing connectivity than just enabling switching between eSIM profiles, and that’s where additional capabilities often grouped under the term “eSIM orchestration” become essential. While eSIM provisioning allows to remotely download and activate mobile profiles on devices, eSIM orchestration goes further by adding automation and logic layers.
GSMA Open Gateway Moves Toward Commercial Scale
In 2025, the initiative has notably shifted toward commercialization and ecosystem expansion. The global GSMA Open Gateway program now includes more than 80 mobile operator groups representing 292 networks and over 80% of mobile connections worldwide.
In October, the CAMARA project announced the third meta-release of network APIs, which are becoming the de facto standard for telcos seeking to expose their network assets and engage with application developers. The new release brought the total number of Camara APIs to 60.
The increasing uptake of these APIs is being supported by a growing number of CAMARA-aligned network API aggregation initiatives, including the Aduna joint venture which has completed its initial formation and begun operating as a formally established, industry-backed entity, as well as other platforms such as the newly launched global network API aggregation solution, Konera.
In the second half of the year, GSMA published dozens of case studies that demonstrate how CAMARA APIs power commercially deployed solutions in various industries: for example, using network-provided identity and location data to improve ride-hailing services, or secure banking authentication and real-time fraud prevention.
The GSMA market demand research indicates that enterprises across all markets see CAMARA APIs related to authorization and fraud prevention as a top priority, while APIs focused on communication quality and computing services emerged in 2025 as high priorities in most regions. In several markets, there are also early signs of growing interest in CAMARA APIs related to device information and location services.
Non-Terrestrial Networks Enter the Mainstream
2025 saw a large number of developments in LEO satellites and direct-to-device. In addition to Verizon-AST SpaceMobile and Orange-Eutelsat partnerships, a Canadian operator Rogers’ launched a beta version of direct-to-cell, Rogers Satellite, and Vodafone has partnered with Iridium for satellite IoT services.
There already are practical results of these partnerships. In an example that could illustrate as well some other parts of these Chronicles, AT&T announced that Mitsubishi Motors North America is embedding the telco’s 5G connectivity into the 2026 Mitsubishi Outlander SUV. The Outlander will support 5G SA, NSA, and LTE technologies, dynamically selecting the best available connection based on network conditions. In the areas that still lack coverage, such as remote areas and national parks, AT&T intends to leverage its partnership with AST SpaceMobile to expand coverage across the continental United States and reduce these coverage gaps where building cell sites may not be commercially or legally feasible.
There is clear evidence of demand and significant revenue potential for telcos offering satellite service in both consumer and IoT segments. The report conducted by GSMA Intelligence for Viasat surveyed over 12,000 mobile phone users across 12 markets, and more than a third of consumers reported losing access to basic mobile cellular services at least twice a month. The report claims that over 60% of consumers globally are prepared to pay extra for satellite-enabled services on their smartphones. GSMA also expects that IoT revenues enabled by satellite can get to $10 billion per year by 2035, roughly 25% of what mobile operators make on IoT as of now. GSMA Intelligence and Skylo survey results indicate that equipment monitoring, supply chain efficiency, asset tracking, environmental monitoring and compliance were top categories where satellites could help businesses most.
Today, there are more than 110 telcos with satellite service. Direct-to-cell has become a major focus area, and GSMA experts have noted that while fully commercial services are unlikely to appear immediately, the market is expected to follow a phased transition, starting with intermittent or partial coverage windows when LEO satellites are overhead in 2026, and gradually extending toward more continuous coverage, including polar regions, by around 2027–2028.
Overall, the industry further shifts from viewing satellites as a separate niche to considering hybrid terrestrial-NTN architectures a part of the mainstream 5G ecosystem.
AI in Telecom Gains Operational Traction
There is a lot of optimism for agentic AI in the industry. The ROI of AI in telecommunications report, commissioned by Google Cloud and conducted by National Research Group, showed that 56% of telco executives reported their organizations are actively using AI agents in production, with security (47%), technical support (46%), and customer service and experience (45%) coming in as the top use cases
GSMA Intelligence observes that most telco AI activity continues to focus on relatively low-risk, incremental use cases where functions can be automated through AI agent stacks. Customer care accounts for almost 50% of deployments, while network-related use cases represent around 16%; however, GSMA Intelligence also notes that a gradual shift is emerging toward AI initiatives tied more directly to revenue generation.
Progress has been somewhat slower with generative AI. Industry experts suggest many telcos still underestimate its broader potential, limiting GenAI investments to chatbot applications, even though it can offer better value propositions in tasks such as automating documentation, RFPs, technical designs, ticket summarization, root-cause narratives, and enterprise knowledge retrieval.
According to Google’s research, 60% of organizations using GenAI saw meaningful customer experience impacts. Telcos also report increases in employee productivity and improved security posture from gen AI, including improvements in identifying threats, threat intelligence and response, and time to resolution.
AI RAN is emerging as a promising area to help improve network performance and make cost savings. Yet, although many telcos are actively experimenting with AI in the RAN and core, fully autonomous zero-touch networking remains a longer-term goal, still several years away.
AI’s direct impact on cellular traffic is minimal so far, with AI data estimated to account only for 0.1% of total cellular traffic. However, this figure doubles monthly, so it’s likely to change soon. Besides, the real impact will come as people start to use video and engage in higher bandwidth use cases such as user-generated content and live broadcast, which are latency dependent, placing pressure on uplink (currently accounting for only 20% of AI traffic).
Rising data usage has real implications for ensuring network capacity is in place to meet that demand and for energy. Most likely, AI usage will add around 25% to annual telco energy consumption by 2030.
5G Standalone Gains Momentum
5G SA has begun to gain clearer momentum, particularly over the past year. According to the GSA data, at least 85 operators in 47 markets now have launched commercial 5G SA networks, and 181 operators in 73 countries and territories worldwide are investing in public 5G SA networks.
Other research points in a similar direction. The August 2025 Heavy Reading 5G Core Operator Survey reported 5G SA is set to scale rapidly and it will unlock the next phase of mobile network service innovation in lead markets. 35% of respondents to the survey said their company was live with SA nationwide, and 20% would be live by the end of the year. In UK, Ofcom released its Connected Nations UK Report, highlighting that 5G Standalone (SA) now accounts for approximately 31% of total 5G traffic in the UK. AT&T reported millions of subscribers already on 5G SA, indicating that consumer migration to premium SA offerings is now tangible rather than niche.
5G SA also paves the way for mobile operators to deploy 5G Advanced capabilities, which come into play with Release 18 of the 3GPP standards, such as faster uplink speeds, highly accurate positioning, and low-cost RedCap (reduced capability) 5G connectivity for the Internet of Things. In August, GSA identified 34 operators in 24 countries that are currently investing in RedCap technology, while some major operators, such as AT&T and Deutsche Telecom, are already offering RedCap-based products or services.
Some operators view 5G Advanced as the interim step between 5G and 6G, building on 3GPP Release 18 capabilities. Yet only seven operators are known to have launched a 5G Advanced service so far, with telcos in Asia leading the way. In the US, it’s only T-Mobile that offers 5G SA nationwide, while AT&T and Verizon are still deploying 5G SA across limited areas. Many operators are relying on 5G radio access network with a 4G non-standalone (NSA) core to handle creating data sessions and managing users. They are not yet able to fully realise the benefits of SA-dependent capabilities, including future 5G Advanced features.
In 2026, mobile network operators around the world will continue to expand the coverage of 5G SA, with continued investment in upgrading or adding new base stations.
Evolving Security Requirements in Cellular Networks
Operators and security bodies have been managing real breaches and data compromises that affect hundreds of thousands of subscribers, highlighting ongoing vulnerability exposure in operator environments. There is a broad understanding in the industry that every connected device, no matter if it’s a phone or IoT device, is an endpoint and a potential threat surface, so end-to-end security approach is critical.
At the same time, zero-trust architectures and advanced risk management practices are gaining traction, with security leaders advocating for secure-by-design systems and contextual authorization across both public and private mobile networks.
Industry standards work explicitly addressing zero-trust for 5G and cloud environments. For example, in August, the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) published “Enhanced 5G and Zero Trust Cloud and Operational Security Aspects” white paper, providing guidance on how to apply zero-trust architecture to 5G cloud and operational security, integrating concepts like continuous verification and least-privilege into telecom environments.
Looking ahead to 2026, many industry observers expect the cybersecurity landscape to be shaped by several key factors. It’s the increasing use of AI on both the attacker and defender side, along with the growing urgency of strengthening identity security and more widespread adoption of zero-trust models within cellular networks.
As the industry moves into 2026, the foundations laid over the past year will support deeper integration of technologies and more mature use cases. At Webbing, we will continue to closely follow these trends, delivering solutions that meet growing demands and provide resilient, flexible, and future-ready connectivity for our customers.
