2025 Midyear Review: January-June
by Baruch Pinto
The first half of 2025 is behind us, and as always, it’s time for our biannual review of the most important developments in cellular connectivity. Let’s take a look at how our earlier forecasts have held up, and explore the trends and technologies that are likely to transform how the industry moves forward.
Work on the SGP.32 Standard
The work on testing and documentation is complete, all standards related to SGP.32 are in place and have been published officially. We expect to see first deployments of fully end-to-end SGP32-compliant solutions toward the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4 2025. At the beginning of next year, we’ll likely see more. As we are looking forward to it, there are two important things that need to be mentioned.
All work with testing and verification is finally done, and you can now officially get through the certification process for the eUICC, the DP+ and the IPA. There is no specific requirement to certify the eIM under the regulation, but most of the eIM vendors today still go through a certification process.
There are two types of GSMA security certification, SAS-UP that focuses on the security of eUICC manufacturing processes and SAS-SM that pertains to the security of eSIM subscription management services. The latter evaluates the systems and processes of service providers responsible for the remote provisioning and management of eSIM profiles, ensuring that these services are secure and reliable. It covers the DP+, and under that scope, they also include the eIM. The certification process includes aspects like the security of the location where the DP+ is being deployed, covering both physical and cybersecurity.
The vendors that have certified their eIM, need to deploy it in those specific locations that have been certified under GSMA. For various reasons they may decide to install it in a location that is not certified or not fully certified, but then their customers need to be made aware of this. Although there is no requirement in the standards to certify the eIM, many consider this a differentiator.
The second thing is the idea of eSIM orchestration that becomes more important now that the work on SGP.32 is over. Orchestration is not a new concept, we at Webbing have been discussing it and presenting it on various occasions. The idea is to try and provide a full solution that will simplify the process for our customers. From acquiring the eUICC profiles from MNOs in different countries to offering the remote SIM provisioning capabilities related to download of profiles, enabling, disabling, deleting profiles, and running some business rules of swapping between profiles. Plus additional capabilities of subscription management that usually involve billing, data packages you can select, and real-time data usage monitoring.
Now it’s up to the players in the market to see how they position themselves. But from our perspective, the eSIM orchestration concept is something that we have been promoting for a long time, and we already have these capabilities in our offering.
Quantum-Proofing the Network: From Guidelines to Global Readiness
In post-quantum cryptography, the work is still ongoing, if not to solve the issue today, then at least to provide guidance for the near future. The market has come to realize that the quantum threat may arrive sooner than expected. What was once thought to be five to ten years away is now being discussed in terms of just two to five years — and possibly even sooner. A central concern is the security of encryption keys. If those keys are compromised, whether through direct hacking or cryptographic breakthroughs, entire systems could be exposed. One of the most pressing risks is what’s known as “collect now, decrypt later”, where adversaries intercept and store encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it in the future, once quantum capabilities are sufficient.
There is no lack of effort from government and standardization bodies. Last year, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) standardized a set of encryption algorithms that can keep data secure from a cyberattack by a future quantum computer. In March 2025, they added a backup algorithm that can provide a second line of defense in case quantum computers are someday able to crack the main algorithm for general encryption. The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) released a roadmap advising organizations to identify critical systems by 2028 and complete the migration by 2035 to mitigate future quantum threats. Likewise, MITRE published its own roadmap in May.
Discussions are already underway within GSMA workgroups about where and how to implement new encryption standards to defend against the threat posed by quantum computers. These conversations focus on identifying which interfaces and modules should be prioritized to ensure robust protection, given quantum computing’s potential to break existing cryptographic schemes.
In 2025, the GSMA has released several documents, including several revisions of Post-Quantum Cryptography Guidelines for Telecom Use Cases (PQ.03) that provides best practices for migrating to quantum-safe cryptography within telecom networks, emphasizing a phased approach and highlighting technical challenges, and Post-Quantum Cryptography in IoT Ecosystem (PQ.04) that focuses on securing IoT solutions against quantum threats.
Connecting the World Through APIs: GSMA Open Gateway’s Next Chapter
Over the past six months, the GSMA Open Gateway initiative has continued to grow, with 73 operator groups now participating, representing nearly 80% of global mobile subscribers. Open APIs were one of the topics discussed at MWC Barcelona, and experts think that the focus is now shifting from initial adoption to commercial deployment and monetization of standardized network APIs.
The venture created by Ericsson and several tier-one players, originally announced last year, has now been officially named Aduna. The company is actively expanding its consortium by bringing in new partners and signing additional agreements with mobile network operators. Among others, Aduna has partnered with major U.S. carriers, Asian companies like SoftBank and NTT DOCOMO, and organizations like JT Global. These collaborations underscore Aduna’s commitment to building a unified, global API ecosystem that empowers developers and enterprises to harness the full potential of modern telecom networks
The company will act as a mediator between mobile network operators (MNOs), who provide access to their network capabilities via CAMARA interfaces, and developers seeking access to those capabilities. Instead of reaching out to each MNO individually and managing varying implementations of CAMARA APIs, developers can now apply through Aduna. The venture will aggregate information from multiple MNOs and provide developers with a unified set of interfaces to work with.
The CAMARA project itself continues to expand its API offering. With the spring meta-release, it now has 38 mature APIs within the ecosystem, having added 13 new initial APIs. Meanwhile, the existing APIs are already being used. For example, Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s largest private bank, has implemented the SIM Swap API to enhance fraud detection and transaction security. As of May, the bank reported 5 million monthly API calls to the SIM Swap service. CAMARA is continuing the work, and is expected to release another set of APIs in September.
Direct-to-Device via Satellite: Where Non-Terrestrial Networks Stands in 2025
The non-terrestrial network sector continues to evolve at a steady but moderate pace, with more MNOs joining forces with satellite providers. For instance, in May, Verizon announced a strategic partnership with AST SpaceMobile, that enables the mobile carrier to use AST’s commercial satellite array in low Earth orbit to provide direct-to-cellular service.
However, despite this steady growth, the NTN sector as a whole is still considered to be in its early stages, according to the researchers. The GSA reported that by the end of February 2025, there were 143 publicly announced partnerships between operators and satellite vendors across 53 countries and territories. At the same time, only 24 operators in 20 countries and territories have commercially launched satellite services, an increase of 12 operators and 8 countries since September.
The primary use case for the broader 5G NTN sector is currently extending coverage to rural and remote areas. Signing these contracts means that in places lacking cellular coverage, users will be able to at least access basic satellite connectivity. It’s important to bear in mind that we’re only talking about messaging services, very basic, very low throughput functionality. The amount of data being transmitted through these satellites is very small, so it mainly supports SOS, emergency services and messages, not much beyond that.
And this will remain the case as long as the satellites work in a “transparent” architecture, where they function primarily as passive relays. They receive signals from user terminals and forward them to ground stations for processing. All signal processing and routing occur on the ground. This model is simpler and less costly to deploy, but it introduces higher latency, and there are some additional effects that have to do with physics and the long distances that these signals have to traverse, Doppler effect and data loss.
The next wave will involve regenerative satellite networks, with a portion of the Radio Access Network (RAN) embedded directly into the satellite. It’ll allow onboard processing of the radio signal, such as decoding and framing, reduced latency and better support for direct-to-device and 5G integration.
Once we have base stations onboard satellites, we may begin to see support for higher throughput applications. That said, latency will always remain a challenge, so applications like remote surgery will likely still be out of scope. Still, there is a wide range of practical use cases that can benefit from increased throughput.
The idea is to enable everyday smartphones to connect directly to satellites, without requiring hardware changes. That means the necessary complexity must be handled either onboard the satellite or at the ground stations. This is why 3GPP Releases 17, 18, and 19 are so important: they introduce the technical capabilities required to support these scenarios reliably.
C-V2X Moves to Market: From Pilots to Scalable Deployments
Both government and commercial sectors have been quite active in advancing C-V2X development. In February 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) partnered with the 5G Automotive Association (5GAA) to demonstrate the integration of C-V2X direct and mobile network communications. The live demonstrations showcased applications such as real-time alerts for connected intersections and pedestrian warnings, emphasizing the role of mobile networks.
In March, Fort Bend County, Texas, initiated the first US deployment of C-V2X technology to enhance street safety around schools. The project involves equipping approximately 120 schools with C-V2X-enabled safety beacons and pedestrian crosswalks. In April, Verizon commercially launched a mobile-network vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication platform for connected vehicles, with multiple customers already signed on, including the Arizona Commerce Authority, Delaware Department of Transportation, and Volkswagen.
On the solutions side, in June, Qualcomm acquired Autotalks, an industry leader in direct V2X communication solutions, to strengthen its position in C-V2X technology and ensure standards support for global deployments. This move shows that major industry players believe the market is increasingly moving toward using cellular connectivity to enable V2X capabilities.
While autonomous driving remains one of the major catalysts for C-V2X adoption, there are other growing use cases such as truck platooning and connected traffic lights. Where cellular networks are involved, depending on the use case, C-V2X deployments may require from network operators to upgrade their networks to 5G SA to support ultra-low latency communication, or install 5G roadside units to connect smart traffic infrastructure. Carriers might also need to work with other MNOs and MVNOs to make these services consistent across different networks and regions. These are important for scaling C-V2X beyond pilots into commercially viable deployments.
AI in Cellular Networks
Many operators are already using AI for predictive maintenance and improving efficiency of their networks in terms of power consumption, or performance optimization. For example, Telefónica Deutschland is using an AI tool to predict mobile data usage patterns for more precise capacity planning, targeted investments and optimized network expansion. The AI analyzes data from 28,000 radio access network sites and factors in other information, such as mobile package tariff changes. According to the operator, the system provides twice as many accurate predictions as conventional planning tools and has an accuracy rate of more than 90%.
In January, Verizon announced that it has successfully deployed in its commercial network RAN Intelligent Controllers that use artificial intelligence and automation to optimize network performance by making decisions based on network conditions.
Norway-based Telenor, which serves over 200 million customers globally, has integrated AI for telco network configuration, utilizing agentic AI to autonomously optimize network parameters. This system dynamically balances factors like speed, interference, and energy efficiency.
We’ll definitely see AI playing an even larger role in the telecom industry, particularly in areas like preventive maintenance, optimizing daily operations, and identifying anomalies in network behavior. Preventive maintenance goes beyond just monitoring the hardware or software health of the network, it can also involve proactively managing network load. For instance, if there’s a sudden traffic surge in a specific area due to an accident, AI can react faster than a human operator to mitigate potential issues.
There are dozens of other use cases, and as MNOs will increasingly adopt AI, one of the key questions that remain is where should AI be deployed. Should it be implemented in the core network, at the edge, or even on the device itself? With the rise of mobile edge computing, there’s a growing case for deploying AI at the network edge to enable faster decision-making. In some cases, we may even see AI models running directly on user devices.
Today, we’re seeing significant deployment of predictive and agent-based AI, and looking ahead, generative AI will likely gain more traction. While certain tasks will always require human involvement, there’s a vast range of functions where AI, especially GenAI, can outperform humans. So, as AI tools improve, we’ll see smarter resource allocation and cost savings for MNOs.
5G SA Matures: Roaming, Slicing, and the Road to Commercial Scale
With 5G standalone, we see new deployments nearly every week, as more networks continue to go live. In January, Dell’Oro Group estimated that since 2020, a total of 61 mobile network operators have deployed 5G SA in 34 countries, and forecast that a dozen more 5G SA networks will launch this year, including AT&T and Verizon. In April, GSA issued an update on the deployment and adoption of 5G SA networks, saying that 73 operators in 39 countries have already launched or soft-launched services. Meanwhile, 163 operators across 65 countries are investing in public 5G SA.
Despite its potential, network slicing has yet to see widespread commercial deployment or mass-market adoption. That said, in the first half of 2025, there have been several notable real-world deployments of 5G Standalone (SA) networks with network slicing across various sectors, including defense, broadband services, and media production.
When it comes to the use cases of ultra-reliable low latency, definitely we start seeing more and more use cases, but some of the features of 5G standalone haven’t come to fruition yet. In the previous issue of Chronicles, we mentioned that 5G SA roaming use cases were more challenging, and it would take some time until they are implemented. Now we begin to see the initial examples: in April, Ericsson announced the first successful 5G SA international roaming connection between two different operator groups. The project demonstrated seamless data and voice connectivity for A1 Bulgaria subscribers on Vodafone Germany’s 5G SA network, using standard devices and commercial-grade core network software based on the latest 3GPP standards.
The developments of the past six months have shown that cellular connectivity is becoming a core enabler for industries around the world. Looking ahead, we expect this momentum to build in the second half of the year, with greater integration across technologies and rising expectations for smart and seamless connectivity. We at Webbing will continue to track these shifts and contribute to them by bringing scalable and robust connectivity solutions to our customers wherever they operate.
