2024 Highlights and 2025 Forecast
by Baruch Pinto
As has become tradition, we look back on the key events and advancements in cellular connectivity over the past year. From the ongoing expansion of 5G networks to the evolution of AI and non-terrestrial networks, 2024 has been a year of rapid change and growth. In this review, we highlight the most significant developments that are shaping the future of the industry.
eSIM Remote Provisioning: Current Status and the Road Ahead
The GSMA’s SGP.32 IoT Remote Provisioning Standard was published in 2023. While the standard itself is stable and the testing of the eUICC has been completed, the testing of the IPA and the eIM is still ongoing, and the certification documents are still being worked on. This work is part of the larger standards suite around SGP.32, and we assume it will probably be finalized in Q1 2025. So most likely we will not see any SGP.32 compliant solutions available before mid-2025 or even the end of 2025.
Given the increased time-to-market, it may be another year or two until the mass use of the standard in IoT products. However, that doesn’t mean that enterprises need to postpone their IoT deployments until fully compliant SGP.32 products become available. There are proprietary pre-standard connectivity solutions that are compatible with all SGP.32 functionality requirements and can be used today and later converged with SGP.32 compliant solutions. Some of them have already been thoroughly tested and commercially deployed, such as WebbingCTRL, which successfully ensures over 1 million connections across various industries.
In addition to the existing standards, new ones are being developed for eSIM, such as SGP 41/42, which focuses on in-factory profile provisioning. There are also ongoing discussions about additional concepts, like how to perform a firmware upgrade on an eUICC with multiple profiles when there isn’t enough memory or what happens to the profiles if a device encounters a fault and needs repairs. Some aspects still require standardization, and work in these areas continues.
Quantum-Safe Security: What Post-Quantum Cryptography Means for Telecom
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is still a hot topic. While the problem of quantum computing threat usually gains more public attention when researchers say that a quantum device powerful enough to crack bitcoin is likely a decade away, but for communication service providers and network operators, the stakes are very high. Networks carry vast amounts of sensitive data, including subscriber information, payment details, device configurations and infrastructure control.
In August, the The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released the first 3 finalized post-quantum encryption standards it announced earlier last year. The standards are designed for two essential tasks for which encryption is typically used: general encryption, used to protect information exchanged across a public network; and digital signatures used for identity authentication. Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) 203 is intended as the primary standard for general encryption with comparatively small encryption keys that two parties can exchange easily, which impacts the speed of operation. FIPS 204 and FIPS 205 are intended for protecting digital signatures.
The standards contain the encryption algorithms’ code and instructions for how to use them. They are ready for immediate use and any subsequent PQC standards will function as backups to these three.
This release is an essential step to help organizations with a quantum-secure transition, since the standards can help make the current cryptographic algorithms secure against currently known quantum attacks and can be implemented in software-based solutions across existing infrastructure. NIST, on its part, encourage system administrators to start integrating the new standards into their systems immediately, because full integration will take time.
For MNOs and MVNOs, that means they are about to embark on one of the most significant modernization migrations. Experts say that virtually all secure digital communications today require an upgrade to post-quantum encryption, and that migration should start now. Preparations include assessing cryptographic assets, developing a PQC plan and conducting research and testing. Organizations also need to develop a data strategy, prioritizing data depending on the period of time it needs to remain private.
GSMA Open Gateway APIs: Shaping the Future of Network Services
The GSMA Open Gateway also stays in the limelight. In the second half of 2024, another 14 operators joined the initiative, so now the number of mobile network groups that signed on reached 67, and they represent a total of 278 networks, 75% of the global market by mobile connections.
The API ecosystem surrounding Open Gateway now includes 23 distinct APIs covering a range of use cases, accessible via the CAMARA repository, an open-source project supported by the GSMA and the Linux Foundation. Last year, numerous operators in China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Argentina and South Africa have launched commercial services using Open Gateway APIs, mainly related to fraud prevention, such as number verification, SMS two-factor authentication, SIM swap, and device location.
However, with the current Open Gateway model developers have found it difficult to integrate the different capabilities of hundreds of telecom operators, which has to be done one operator at a time. This fuels the growth of partnership ecosystem around the initiative, aimed at both enabling some technical capabilities and addressing demand-side challenges.
In December, France’s four leading mobile operators joined forces to provide services designed to help app developers and enterprises tackle online fraud and protect the digital identities of mobile customers by launching two network APIs for the French market.
Perhaps most notably, in September, some of the world’s largest telecom operators together with Ericsson announced a new venture to combine and sell network APIs on a global scale to spur innovation in digital services. The new company will provide network APIs to a broad ecosystem of developer platforms, including hyperscalers, Communications Platform as a Service (CPaaS) providers, system integrators and independent software vendors, based on existing industry-wide CAMARA APIs. Vonage and Google Cloud will partner with the new company, providing access to their ecosystems of millions of developers as well as their partners.
For MNOs, the initiative promises additional revenue streams, while giving MVNOs the potential to build differentiated services. Overall, the GSMA Open Gateway seems to shift focus from building technical capabilities to driving measurable business outcomes, and 2025 is expected to become a pivotal year in that regard.
The Satellite Revolution: Non-Terrestrial Networks and the Future of Mobile
Non-terrestrial networks are steadily making news and growing in importance. The Mobile Satellite Services Association (MSSA) we mentioned in our previous Chronicles post, was launched in February and doubled its membership by July, got more new members in the second half of the year, including some big names – for example, Ericsson joined the alliance in September.
But what seems to be even more important, in October the MSSA announced its alliance with the GSMA. Two organizations have agreed to explore integrating direct-to-device (D2D) and IoT services via mobile satellite services (MSS) satellites, based on 3GPP standards. They are interested in scaling this type of communications and starting cooperative agreements with cellular operators to lay the foundation for a future where satellite and terrestrial networks are fully integrated.
In their “Top 10 Telecoms & Connectivity Trends 2025” report, Juniper Research expect the first commercial connections to be adopted in 2025; an ecosystem has already been created in which a commercially viable service can be launched. Satellite network operators have all been investing heavily in satellite launches and operator partnerships to enable the first commercial service in 2025. For instance, SpaceX deployed the entire first shell of the direct-to-cell constellation in 2024, after the FCC gave them approval to operate satellite direct-to-cellular service with T-Mobile. This was the FCC’s first instance of approving supplemental coverage from space (SCS), in which satellites communicate directly with unmodified cell phones using MNO spectrum.
Another example is AST SpaceMobile that signed a commercial agreement with Vodafone through 2034 and announced the successful unfolding of its first five commercial satellites, BlueBirds 1-5. The company will target 100% nationwide coverage across the US, providing service through more than 5,600 cells on premium low-band spectrum via strategic partnerships with leading operators like AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone.
C-V2X: Transforming Transportation with Cellular Connectivity
In the second half of 2024, there was quite a lot of activity related to cellular-vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) technology that provides direct communications between vehicles, roadside infrastructure, and other road users.
In August, the U.S. Department of Transportation released a roadmap that can speed up the deployment of V2X technology. In the short term, the plan aims to have V2X infrastructure in place on 20% of the National Highway System by 2028, and for 25% of the nation’s largest metro areas to have V2X enabled at signalized intersections. Those deployments will be doubled in size by 2031, and the nationwide rollout is expected to be completed by 2036.
In November, The Federal Communications Commission adopted final rules for C-V2X technology. The new rules will accelerate the automotive industry and state and federal government plans for transition from “dated” technology to the C-V2X in the 5.9 GHz spectrum band dedicated to Intelligent Transportation Systems.
The 5G Automotive Association (5GAA) has published the third edition of its Roadmap for advanced driving use cases, connectivity, and technologies, with a focus on C-V2X.
While most vehicles and infrastructure to-date have relied on C-V2X to communicate with one another via cellular networks, the 5GAA sees a growing role for direct vehicle-to-vehicle and related communications, expecting 5G-V2X Direct-enabled vehicles and related services to begin to be mass-deployed between 2026 and 2029, starting in Europe.
In addition, the roadmap for the first time describes a timeline for new use cases enabled by non-terrestrial networks, forecasting that satellite connectivity could help guarantee ubiquitous service in rural areas and disaster situations as soon as 2027.
On the business side of it, some experts believe that fulfilling these plans will require more cooperation between MNOs, automotive manufacturers and road operators.
AI in Telecom: A Game-Changer for Network Management and Service Innovation
Over the course of the past year, AI has been all over the headlines. Among its many applications, the technology also works in telecommunications, and the growing complexity of cellular networks is driving AI’s importance. As of 2024, more than half of telecoms providers had either fully or partially integrated artificial intelligence and automation. Another survey showed that 31 percent of mobile network operators worldwide had already begun deploying AI technology in their 5G networks, while a further 24 percent were planning to do so in the near future.
One of the main applications of AI for operators is network operations and maintenance. Implementing a gen AI in network operations can lead to significant performance improvements, including 20-30% lower escalation rates, a 30-40% reduction in mean time to repair and average handle time, meaning enhanced network uptime. Some operators use genAI to assist employees with managing network equipment and the software within it: suggest actions, diagnose issues, interpret conditions, and search for technical knowledge. AI also monitors network traffic and detects abnormal patterns to identify signs of failure, conduct root cause analysis, develop action plans, and automatically implement them.
Experts say it can help the operators with customer service, too: with 30% of customer requests around billing questions, gen AI can help deflect some of these basic requests by understanding the data within the operator’s environment and looking at behavioral patterns. Essentially, it could help cut down on call center resources, while simultaneously delivering an improved customer experience.
And as far as forecasts go, the range of applications for AI in cellular networks will continue growing. The next wave of AI integration will focus on AI-native architectures. Unlike traditional approaches where AI is added later, AI-native architectures treat AI as a core component, integrated into the network from the beginning.
Leveraging AI across all network layers, from the RAN, core, and edge to end-user devices operators will be able to optimize overall performance, to operate their networks at the lowest cost per bit and with the highest energy efficiency.
5G Standalone: What’s Next for Mobile Networks and Use Cases?
Earlier last year, we didn’t see a lot of standalone 5G networks, but gradually, the carriers start delivering the capabilities that 5G was intended for, including ultra-reliable, low-latency communications and massive machine-type communications.
In the second half of 2024, a bunch of operators across Europe announced or launched their 5G SA deployments, while some marketed specific 5G SA-based use cases as opposed to a general 5G SA network launch. In France, Orange deployed and extensively used a 5G SA network during the Olympic Games in Paris this summer and is preparing further offers for the consumer and B2B markets in 2025. In September, Free proclaimed itself the first operator in France to offer 5G SA on its public network on a national scale. In the U.K., BT-owned EE launched 5G SA network in 15 cities. Vodafone Germany rolled out a 5G SA network across the country, claiming to cover 92 percent of the population. Deutsche Telecom also launched 5G SA, but in the form of a mobile cloud gaming option based on network slicing.
Worldwide, the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) estimated in its September update that there are at least 60 operators in 34 countries and territories that are now understood to have deployed, launched or soft-launched public 5G SA networks.
However, as we see more services based on 5G SA capabilities like network slicing, there are still use cases that are more challenging – in particular, 5G SA roaming. For example, with network slicing a network operator cannot provide the same level of service to its subscribers roaming on other networks: there is no guarantee that the visitor’s network supports the service, and even if it does, there’s no guarantee that the network owner is willing to provide it. For these reasons some 5G SA use cases may not be really available yet and it will take some time until we see them implemented.
Overall, 2025 promises to bring further innovation and transformation to cellular networks and IoT connectivity, and potentially some major breakthroughs in key areas. At Webbing, we’ll continue to closely monitor emerging trends and implement the most impactful developments, with a focus on enhancing our offerings and delivering greater value and improved connectivity solutions for our customers.
